The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded swiftly from its five-month minimum of $74,300 to attain $83,565 on April 9, yet the rejection from the $83,500 threshold raises doubts on whether BTC can sustain the $80,000 range.
Will Trump’s 90-day tariff suspension result in a BTC trend reversal?
On April 9, US President Donald Trump implemented a 90-day suspension on suggested tariff increases while enforcing a general 10% reciprocal tariff on all nations except China. In contrast to his more extensive gesture, Trump intensified his trade confrontation with China, raising tariffs on Chinese imports to the USA to 125%, citing Beijing’s disregard for “world markets.”
This action sparked a monumental market surge, with Bitcoin soaring over 7% to $82,000 as investor unease diminished. The suspension provides momentary reprieve, alleviating immediate trade war apprehensions that had earlier devastated risk assets.
However, China’s counteractive 84% tariffs on US imports, set to commence on April 10, indicate an escalating conflict. Should talks collapse and the US-China trade dispute worsen post the 90-day period, Bitcoin may encounter renewed downward pressures as markets react to increased uncertainty.
“With China targeted so distinctly, market players are preparing for Beijing’s retaliatory strike,” trading firm QCP Capital noted in a Telegram message to investors.
QCP Capital further stated:
“If retaliation occurs forcefully, the exuberant rally could swiftly transform into a classic bull trap.”
While the suspension provides breathing space, its capacity to avert a crash relies on whether Trump can diffuse tensions with China—a daunting task, given his confrontational language.
Inflationary challenges could burden BTC price
Another element contributing to Bitcoin price challenges is macroeconomic influences such as inflation concerns and potential recessions.
Bitcoin has become increasingly aligned with tech stocks and overall market sentiment, as evidenced by its significant declines during market upheavals. For example, when Trump’s initial tariff declarations prompted a sell-off in equities, Bitcoin fell nearly 10% from its peaks earlier this year, dipping below $80,000.
Experts contend that should trade disputes escalate further or central banks tighten monetary policies to fight inflation, investors might abandon risk assets like Bitcoin, leading to a decline in its price.
This sensitivity to macroeconomic transitions implies that any abrupt economic shock—like a Federal Reserve rate hike or a global growth deceleration—could trigger another crash, particularly if Bitcoin fails to surpass its current trading bracket of $80,000-$90,000.
Market participants are now redirecting their focus to the April 10 CPI data, which is set to shift attention back to the domestic economy.
“A softer figure would be welcomed,” QCP Capital stated, adding that it would aid in “offsetting the inflationary burden introduced by the universal tariff policy.”
Lowering interest rates prior to June seems unlikely, despite one Fed meeting planned in the interim, as per CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
The likelihood of the Fed maintaining interest rates at the May 7 meeting stands at 81.5%.
This may further dampen enthusiasm for BTC and drive its price lower if key price levels do not stabilize.
Related: Bitcoin price skyrockets to $83.5K — Have pro BTC traders become bullish?
Essential Bitcoin levels to monitor
Bitcoin surpassed the $75,000 mark on April 8 before retracting to the current figures. Traders are now concentrating on significant areas around this point and the $109,000 peak, which the BTC price could revisit shortly.
From a technical standpoint, crucial Bitcoin levels to observe include the 111-day moving average (MA) at $93,000, the 200-day MA at $87,000, and the 365-day MA at $76,000, according to market intelligence firm Glassnode.
In its most recent Week’s On-chain report, Glassnode emphasizes that after failing to maintain the 111-day MA and the 200-day MA during the recent pullbacks, the price must now stay above the 365-day MA to avert another crash.
“This is a critical momentum level that has thus far functioned as support but needs to continue to do so to prevent further downside momentum from developing.”
Another level to monitor, according to Glassnode, is the short-term holder (STH) cost basis at $93,000 (aligning with the 111-day MA), which, if reclaimed, would indicate the first signs of strengthening momentum.
However, should Bitcoin fail to maintain its position above $80,000, it will enter another downward trend. Key levels to observe beneath the 365-day EMA are the active realized price at $71,000 and, in severe scenarios, the true market mean of approximately $65,000.
“We now witness confluence across several on-chain price models, underscoring the $65k to $71k price bracket as a pivotal area of interest for the bulls to establish long-term support.”
As previously reported by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin faces the risk of another drop to five-month lows at $71,000 if the tariff conflicts and stock market turmoil persist.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading action carries risk, and readers should perform their own due diligence when making decisions.
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