The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been fluctuating within the $82,400-85,300 zone since March 14, with attempts to break out in both directions proving to be fleeting, as illustrated below.
Important elements affecting Bitcoin’s stagnant price activity include:
Trade conflict anxiety overshadows pro-Bitcoin developments
The price of Bitcoin remains stagnant as optimistic and pessimistic headlines collide, generating conflicting biases that leave traders uncertain and BTC bound within a range.
The enthusiastic indicators:
On March 19, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%–4.50% and indicated a slower pace of balance sheet reduction, suggesting a more accommodative policy in the future.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell described tariff-induced inflation as “transitory,” adopting a dovish stance that temporarily buoyed market sentiment.
President Donald Trump labeled the US the “unquestioned Bitcoin superpower” and advocates for pro-crypto measures, including regulations for stablecoins.
MicroStrategy remains at the forefront of institutional interest, acquiring 130 BTC for $10.7 million, raising its total to 499,226 BTC.
Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed liquidating US gold reserves to obtain 1 million BTC over a five-year timeframe—a bold indication of evolving perceptions of Bitcoin as a strategic asset.
The concerning indicators:
Despite Powell’s dovish outlook, the Fed revised its 2025 inflation forecast upwards to 2.8% from 2.5% and decreased GDP growth expectations to 1.7% from 2.1%, implying rising stagflation risks.
Bitcoin’s breakout following the FOMC meeting was brief, with the price swiftly retreating into a narrow trading range—indicating a lack of strong conviction.
Persistent trade disputes and tariff instabilities continue to loom over the markets, with no definitive solution in sight.
A European Central Bank representative cautioned that Trump’s pro-crypto position could precipitate a worldwide financial crisis.
In summary, macroeconomic wariness and geopolitical noise counterbalance the bullish triggers. Until one faction decisively breaks free, Bitcoin’s price is likely to linger in uncertainty.
Contracting liquidity hampers Bitcoin market
A reduction in liquidity, dwindling speculative engagement, and diminishing capital influxes are further keeping BTC constrained within the $82,400-85,300 range.
Key insights:
The realized cap is expanding at merely +0.67% monthly, signaling weak capital inflows compared to 13.2% in December, according to Glassnode’s weekly on-chain report.
Hot Supply, which monitors coins held for a week or shorter (an indicator of short-term trader activity), has plummeted over 50%, reflecting a significant drop in short-term trading activity.
Related: ‘Bitcoin bull cycle is over,’ CryptoQuant CEO cautions, citing on-chain metrics
These indicators signal a downturn in trade and speculation, suggesting that the Bitcoin market is shifting from a profit-centric phase to a neutral equilibrium.
Reduced liquidity and muted sentiment are limiting larger upward and downward movements.
BTC price ensnared within ascending triangle formation
Bitcoin’s price remains ensnared as technical hurdles continue to restrain both upward and downward momentum.
Essential observations:
Prices are consolidating between a horizontal support-turned-resistance level and an ascending trendline support.
The upper limit functions as a significant ceiling.
The ascending trendline is providing consistent support, preventing a more profound pullback.
Recent attempts to break upward have fallen short, including a false breakout above the resistance trendline.
This tightening pattern reflects increasing indecision, likely to resolve with a sharp movement once either barrier breaks definitively.
The horizontal trendline resistance along with the ascending trendline support illustrates an ascending triangle.
Key points to note:
An ascending triangle is recognized as a bullish reversal pattern when forming during a downtrend.
Typically, it resolves when the price surpasses the top trendline, potentially rising by as much as the triangle’s maximum height.
This sets an upward target of approximately $91,965 for April.
Alternatively, a breakdown below the lower trendline could amplify the selling pressure.
This article does not constitute financial advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries inherent risk, and readers are advised to conduct their own research prior to making any choices.
Be the first to comment