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Bitcoin (BTC) is preparing for a significant macroeconomic data week in the US as crypto market participants caution of substantial volatility ahead.
Bitcoin revisits $92,000 following a promising weekly closure, though traders anticipate a more profound BTC price correction to follow.
A busy week of US macro data arrives while the Federal Reserve faces pressure on various fronts.
The Fed is constrained, analysts predict, with expectations of decreasing interest rates, soaring liquidity, and BTC/USD potentially hitting $180,000 within a year and a half.
Short-term Bitcoin holders are back in profit, making current price levels especially relevant for speculative investors.
Market sentiment remains neutral, but crowd-driven FOMO could hinder significant price increases, research suggests.
Bitcoin traders await support retest
Bitcoin is hovering near multi-month highs as the week commences, having tested $92,000 as a support level following the weekly close.
This closure was bullish, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms, occurring just above the crucial yearly open level of $93,500.
#BTC
Can Bitcoin succeed?
Can Bitcoin Weekly Close above $93500 to initiate the process of reclaiming the previous range?$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/r5reRJ0HFy pic.twitter.com/5ga0gcSqX4
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 27, 2025
Predicting an “interesting week” ahead, popular trader CrypNuevo identified the possibility for higher peaks for BTC/USD.
“Quite straightforward – I don’t foresee momentum fading just yet, and it’s feasible to witness a third leg up to $97k where some liquidity exists,” he communicated in a thread on X.
“Eventually, we should see a 4H50EMA retest that can serve as potential support.”
CrypNuevo referred to the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on 4-hour charts, now at $91,850.
Regarding potential support retests, fellow trader Roman envisaged a steeper retracement.
“Eager to see what unfolds at 88k,” he shared with X followers.
“Not convinced we’ll break 94k resistance anytime soon.”
Roman emphasized that the stochastic relative strength index (RSI) metric remained significantly overbought, signaling that a price cooling-off period might ensue.
Trader and analyst Skew, on the other hand, focused on the range between $90,000 and $92,000, highlighting “indecision” within the market leading to current price movement.
GDP, PCE prints headline major macro week
This week marks a critical juncture for US macroeconomic data and inflation trends, with a flood of numbers arriving rapidly.
Q1 GDP, nonfarm payrolls, and tech earnings are on the calendar, but the centerpiece will be the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.
Slated for release on April 30, both PCE and GDP precede the monthly candle closure, laying the groundwork for volatility in crypto and risk assets.
The stakes are high — US trade tariffs have caused extreme fluctuations up and down for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and commodities, with no apparent end in sight.
“This has emerged as one of the most volatile years on record: The S&P 500 has experienced a 2% shift in either direction on 23% of trading days, or at least once weekly so far this year,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter remarked in a segment of ongoing X analysis.
“This is the highest level since 2022, when it reached 29% for the entire year. In comparison, the long-term average has been twice each month.”
Inflation expectations remain a pressing issue, with markets anticipating interest rate cuts beginning in June despite the Fed itself maintaining a hawkish stance.
The latest figures from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicate divergent views on outcomes from the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Conversely, May’s FOMC gathering is widely expected to maintain the current Fed funds rate.
“Signs of a robust labor market and concerns about how tariffs could affect inflation forecasts are keeping the Fed from altering interest rates,” trading firm Mosaic Asset noted in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic,” on April 27.
Referencing FedWatch, Mosaic highlighted that “market-implied probabilities are beginning to shift towards more rate cuts through year-end.”
Crypto exec reinforces $180K BTC price target
Current macro data has already sparked interest among crypto market players scrutinizing the long-term effects of prevailing Fed policies.
In his latest X analysis, hedge fund founder Dan Tapiero offered a bold BTC price forecast for the next eighteen months.
“Bitcoin to 180k before late summer ’26,” he summarized.
Tapiero pointed to a recent Fed survey indicating manufacturing expectations are deteriorating at an unprecedented pace, labeling the findings “difficult for them to sidestep.”
“Forward market inflation indicators descending into the danger zone,” he added in a separate post regarding the outlook for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).
In both instances, Tapiero concluded that Bitcoin and risk assets will gain from enhanced market liquidity — a theory gaining traction against the backdrop of record M2 money supply.
“Liquidity influx anticipated as real rates remain overly restrictive due to fiscal tightening,” he commented regarding current interest rates.
Bitcoin speculators reap profits
Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) are once again under scrutiny at current prices due to the impact of their collective cost basis on market direction.
As Cointelegraph frequently reports, the cost basis, also referred to as realized price, reflects the average entry price for speculative investors in the market.
This level, which encompasses buyers from the past six months but is also categorized into various segments, holds particular significance in Bitcoin bullish markets.
“Today, analyzing the current scenario, we observe that the price has hit the STH-Realized Price,” CryptoMe, a contributor to the onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, mentioned in one of its “Quicktake” reports.
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CryptoQuant indicates that the overall STH cost basis currently rests at approximately $92,000, rendering this level essential to maintain as support in the future.
“A primary On-Chain condition for a bullish trend is that the price stays above the STH-Realized Price. If the price falls below the Realized Prices, we cannot genuinely discuss a bullish trend,” CryptoMe articulates.
“For this bullish trend to persist, it must satisfy these conditions.”
The STH cost basis was forfeited as support in March, with the recent BTC price surge having an almost immediate effect on its latest purchasers.
STH-held coins transacting on-chain earlier this month, in turn, led to forecasts of renewed market volatility.
Analysis cautions against greed-driven “local peak”
After reaching its peak in nearly three months last week, greed within the crypto space is being monitored as a market influence this week.
Related: New Bitcoin price records might emerge in May — Here’s why
The most recent figures from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reveal a jump to 72/100 on April 25, suggesting that crypto market sentiment was nearing “extreme greed.”
Now situated back in “neutral” territory, the Index has nevertheless prompted research firm Santiment to caution against a possible local price peak.
“Data indicates an increase in optimism among the public as $BTC rebounded above $95K for the first time since February,” it informed X followers.
“Regarding the levels of greed being assessed across social channels, this marks the highest surge in optimistic (compared to pessimistic) posts since the night Trump was elected on November 5, 2024.”
An accompanying graph illustrated what Santiment describes as “enthusiasm and FOMO” peaking due to the BTC price rise.
“The public’s level of greed vs. fear is very likely to influence whether a local peak emerges (due to the crowd becoming overly greedy), or if crypto can continue to diverge from the S&P 500 (as the crowd tries to exit profits too soon),” it added.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading action carries risks, and readers should perform their own research when making decisions.
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