The value of Bitcoin (BTC) in relation to gold (XAU) could be set for a significant 35% decline, reflecting historical bearish market indicators and responding to considerable volatility that has eradicated $13 trillion from the US stock market.
Bitcoin’s fall below critical gold support
As of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio closed beneath its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red curve) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.
Traditionally, a conclusive close under the 50-period EMA has prompted an extended downturn toward the 200-period EMA (the blue curve).
For example, in both 2021 and 2022, BTC/XAU saw an initial rebound after approaching the 50-EMA, only to ultimately fall below it and retreat towards the 200-EMA, as depicted above.
Related: Bitcoin longs offload $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales becoming bearish above $86K?
This scenario is now reappearing in 2025 following two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is trending downward, indicating a potential movement towards the 200-EMA, which represents an approximate 35% decrease.
Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, presents an analogous downside perspective for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, noting its exceptionally strong correlation with the US stock market.
“What does $13 trillion signify? The 2025 peak-to-trough decline in US stock market capitalization — nearly 50% of GDP,” he remarked, adding:
“The Bitcoin/gold crossover exhibits similar chart patterns to market cap-to-GDP.”
“Rebounds should be anticipated in bear markets,” he remarked, suggesting that while short-lived relief rallies might occur, both Bitcoin and equities are likely to trend downward for now.
This is in contrast to the prevailing decoupling narrative between Bitcoin and US stocks.
BTC vs gold declines are traditionally bearish
Weakness in the BTC/XAU pairing does not only provide a relative indication; it frequently precedes concrete declines in Bitcoin’s value.
This trend was markedly evident during the 2021–2022 cycle. Following BTC/XAU’s drop below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD similarly followed, entering a lengthy bear market that witnessed values tumble from over $42,000 to beneath $17,000.
This pattern also recurred in prior cycles, specifically during 2019-2020 and 2018-2019. Each time, Bitcoin either reached bottom around its 200-week EMA or dropped further below it to define a cycle low, as illustrated below.
If the established correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD persists in this cycle, Bitcoin faces an increased risk of sliding toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently hovers around $50,950.
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and trading decision entails risk, and readers should perform their own investigation before deciding.
a sharp 35% decline, as it reflects historical bear market indications and responds to significant volatility that has erased $13 trillion from the US stock market.
Bitcoin’s descent below crucial gold support indicates further selloffs
As of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had concluded below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.
Historically, a significant close beneath the 50-period EMA has resulted in a prolonged downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).
In both 2021 and 2022, for example, BTC/XAU experienced a brief rebound after approaching the 50-EMA, only to later break beneath it and fall toward the 200-EMA, as illustrated above.
This trend is now manifesting again in 2025 following two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is trending lower, implying that a movement towards the 200-EMA might be imminent, indicating an approximate 35% drop.
Mike McGlone, the head commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, presents a similar bearish projection for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, pointing to its strong positive correlation with the US stock market.
“What does $13 trillion represent? The 2025 peak-to-trough decline in US stock market capitalization — nearly 50% of GDP,” he stated, adding:
“The Bitcoin/gold crossover exhibits similar chart patterns with market cap-to-GDP.
“Rebounds should be anticipated in bear markets,” he continued, suggesting that while short-term relief rallies are feasible, the overarching trend for both Bitcoin and equities could remain downward at this time.
Related: Bitcoin long positions reduced by $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales becoming bearish above $86K?
This stands in contrast to the prevailing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and US stocks.
BTC/XAU breakdowns historically indicate bearish conditions for BTC/USD
Weakness within the BTC/XAU pair serves not just as a relative indicator; it often signals impending declines in Bitcoin’s value.
This pattern was distinctly observable during the 2021–2022 cycle. Following BTC/XAU’s drop below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s USD value mirrored this trend, entering a drawn-out bear market that saw prices diminish from over $42,000 to below $17,000.
The trend was evident in previous cycles as well, specifically during the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either reached a low near its 200-week EMA or dropped further below it to set a cycle low, as depicted below.
If the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD remains true in this current cycle, Bitcoin faces an increased risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by the end of the year, which currently hovers around $50,950.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trade decisions carry risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.
massive fluctuations that have erased $13 trillion from the US stock market.
Bitcoin’s fall beneath crucial gold support indicates further selloffs
As of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio closed beneath its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.
Traditionally, a significant close below the 50-period EMA has triggered a prolonged downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).
In both 2021 and 2022, for example, BTC/XAU saw an initial rebound after touching the 50-EMA, only to ultimately break below it and drop toward the 200-EMA, as illustrated above.
This trend is repeating in 2025 after two recent assessments of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is descending, indicating that a movement toward the 200-EMA may be forthcoming, denoting an approximately 35% decline.
Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, shares a similar negative perspective for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, mentioning its exceptionally strong correlation with the US stock market.
“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — nearly 50% of GDP,” he noted, adding:
“The Bitcoin/gold cross exhibits similar-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.
“Rebounds should be anticipated in bear markets,” he continued, indicating that while short-term relief rallies may occur, the overall trajectory for both Bitcoin and equities may trend downward for the time being.
Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales becoming bearish above $86K?
This stands in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US equities.
BTC/XAU breakdowns have historically been bearish for BTC/USD
A decline in the BTC/XAU pair is not merely a relative indicator; it often precedes absolute declines in Bitcoin’s valuation.
This trend was distinctly evident during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU fell below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s USD value followed, entering a drawn-out bear market that witnessed prices plummet from over $42,000 to under $17,000.
This pattern was also repeated in prior cycles, specifically during the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each instance saw Bitcoin either bottom out around its 200-week EMA or sink lower to form a cycle low, as shown below.
If the historical connection between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD remains valid in the present cycle, Bitcoin is at heightened risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by the close of the year, currently standing near $50,950.
This article does not provide investment advice or endorsements. Every investment and trading action entails risk, and readers should engage in their own research before making decisions.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) valuation in relation to Gold (XAU) could be set for a significant 35% decline, as it reflects historical bear market indications and responds to substantial turbulence that has erased $13 trillion from the US stock market.
Bitcoin’s fall beneath crucial gold support indicates further selloffs
As of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio closed beneath its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.
Traditionally, a significant close below the 50-period EMA has triggered a prolonged downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).
In both 2021 and 2022, for example, BTC/XAU saw an initial rebound after touching the 50-EMA, only to ultimately break below it and drop toward the 200-EMA, as illustrated above.
This trend is repeating in 2025 after two recent assessments of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is descending, indicating that a movement toward the 200-EMA may be forthcoming, denoting an approximately 35% decline.
Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, shares a similar negative perspective for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, mentioning its exceptionally strong correlation with the US stock market.
“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — nearly 50% of GDP,” he noted, adding:
“The Bitcoin/gold cross exhibits similar-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.
“Rebounds should be anticipated in bear markets,” he continued, indicating that while short-term relief rallies may occur, the overall trajectory for both Bitcoin and equities may trend downward for the time being.
Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales becoming bearish above $86K?
This stands in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US equities.
BTC/XAU breakdowns have historically been bearish for BTC/USD
A decline in the BTC/XAU pair is not merely a relative indicator; it often precedes absolute declines in Bitcoin’s valuation.
This trend was distinctly evident during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU fell below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s USD value followed suit, entering a drawn-out bear market that witnessed prices plummet from over $42,000 to under $17,000.
This pattern was also repeated in prior cycles, specifically during the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each instance saw Bitcoin either bottom out around its 200-week EMA or sink lower to form a cycle low, as shown below.
If the historical connection between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD remains valid in the present cycle, Bitcoin is at heightened risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by the close of the year, currently standing near $50,950.
This article does not provide investment advice or endorsements. Every investment and trading action entails risk, and readers should engage in their own research before making decisions.
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