Arthur Hayes Envisions a Short-Lived Plunge for Bitcoin to $70,000

Arthur Hayes forecasted a significant decline in Bitcoin’s price but asserted that it would recover to a new all-time high by year’s end.

The bulk of his contentions were not connected to the recent DeepSeek-driven market upheaval, yet he posited that these occurrences could act as a trigger.

Arthur Hayes Anticipates a Mini-Financial Crisis for Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, has drastically altered his short-term forecasts for Bitcoin. Earlier this month, he indicated that Bitcoin’s price would attain a peak in mid-March before undergoing a significant downturn.

Nevertheless, today, Hayes revised his forecast, stating that BTC was already on the verge of this drop.

“Rearranging the sequence of my triptych essay series. I am predicting a $70,000 to $75,000 retracement in BTC, signaling a mini financial crisis, followed by a renewal of monetary expansion that will propel us to $250,000 by the year’s conclusion,” claimed Hayes.

Hayes later shared a comprehensive analysis of this forecast on his personal blog, referencing numerous global economic elements.

Hayes’ short-term pessimistic outlook for Bitcoin is grounded in the weakening global fiat liquidity landscape, influenced by increasing US 10-year Treasury yields, a more restrictive Federal Reserve, and slowed monetary expansion in significant economies such as the US, China, and Japan.

These elements have resulted in heightened financial pressure, which in turn fosters an adverse climate for fiat-valued assets, including Bitcoin, which Hayes contends is particularly reactive to global liquidity situations.

“What leads me to endorse a 30% drop for Bitcoin? Such pullbacks frequently occur during bull markets due to Bitcoin’s inherent volatility. More crucially, the market surged past the March 2024 historical high right after Trump’s reelection victory in early November 2024. Numerous individuals, myself included, have elaborated on how Trumpism signals a ramp-up in monetary expansion in the US, prompting other nations to similarly initiate money printing measures to stimulate their local economies,” Hayes articulated.

His initial forecasts were unrelated to DeepSeek, the Chinese AI protocol that impacted the cryptocurrency market today. Nonetheless, the effects of DeepSeek only strengthened his conviction.

Even though BTC ETFs reached unprecedented volumes on Friday, long-term holders liquidated their assets in considerable amounts. Crypto-focused businesses like MicroStrategy also experienced repercussions from DeepSeek despite acquiring substantial quantities of BTC.

For Hayes, however, this merely amplified pre-existing trends concerning Bitcoin.

Although President Trump has vowed pro-crypto reforms at several regulatory bodies, Hayes holds the belief that “the Fed will act in ways to undermine the Trump agenda.” In summary, he suspects personal grievances will obstruct consistent policy-making.

Hayes further evaluated various countries’ economic strategies and the potential repercussions for Bitcoin. Ultimately, he remains optimistic that any stagnation will be fleeting and lead to even greater gains.

For the time being, however, price declines might prove to be quite distressing.