Could Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Propel Prices to $162K in Just Weeks?

The ongoing Bitcoin surge may simply be beginning, as market analysts anticipate a possible rise to $162,000 by mid-June, predominantly influenced by short-term holders nearing a significant profit level.

As stated by Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for holders with a maximum of three months of possession stands at 27%.

The Short-Term Holder Catalyst

In a post on X dated May 26, the macro analyst pointed out that historically, this group tends to start selling when unrealized gains exceed 40%, resulting in significant price resistance.

His analysis indicates the metric advancing at 0.818 percentage points daily, implying it might surpass the 40% threshold around June 11, 2025, at which time Bitcoin could reach $162,000, barring unforeseen macro disruptions.

Adler’s forecast may have received backing from the pseudonymous analyst Dr. Profit, who highlighted a “rare and powerful” Golden Cross signal, which he contends has preceded significant Bitcoin rallies over the past two years.

With an 87.8% historical accuracy rate on longer timeframes, he mentioned comparable technical setups in October 2023 and October 2024, which resulted in price surges of 170% and 173%, respectively.

With the latest signal occurring in May, Dr. Profit maintains a short-term range of $117,000 to $120,000, emphasizing key price drivers, such as robust exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, which are absorbing new supply at nine times the mining rate, Strategy’s ongoing BTC accumulation, and a liquidity cluster at $113,000.

On-Chain Data Reinforcing Bullish Thesis

The leading cryptocurrency’s recent on-chain behavior has also strengthened the bullish narrative. According to Santiment data, as of May 23, BTC’s Mean Dollar Age, which tracks the duration coins are held, had dropped from 441 to 429 days since mid-April. This indicates that inactive Bitcoin is circulating again, something experts generally interpret as a sign of the early stages of a bull market.

Moreover, data from Glassnode reveals that while Bitcoin recently achieved an all-time high of $111,814 (ATH) on May 22, realized profit-taking remains limited. Only $1 billion in profits were realized, which is less than half of the volume observed when BTC first surpassed $100,000.

Meanwhile, in the past 24 hours, the crypto asset has appreciated by 2.3%, supported by U.S. President Donald Trump’s delay of the deadline for a 50% tariff on the EU, boosting its weekly increase to 6.7%.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s present price of $110,085 reflects a 16.3% rise over 30 days. And even with a 1.6% drop from its ATH, the leading cryptocurrency’s market capitalization remains stable at $2.18 trillion, reinforcing its status as the fifth-largest asset worldwide.